Overall construction activity
In 2023, the construction sector in France shows a slow growth of 0.3% in constant prices, mainly due to the negative trend in the building sector (-0.8%), while the public construction sector shows good dynamics (+4.1%).
In 2024, construction activity is expected to fall by 4.5% in volume terms. This decline is due to the recession in building (-5.5%) and a decline in public works (-1.0%).
Although employment remains stable in 2023, a significant decline is forecast for 2024, with a loss of 80,000 salaried jobs in construction, while employment in public works is expected to stabilise.
Housebuilding
After a fall of 8% in 2023 at constant prices, residential construction is expected to fall by a further 21.3% in 2024 as a result of the continued collapse in housing starts since 2022. They will fall to just 250 000 units in 2024, a level almost 111 000 units below the long-term average. Building permits are expected to fall by 12.1% in 2024, reflecting a drop of around 15% in the number of social rented dwellings approved in 2023, while sales of new private dwellings by builders and developers are expected to fall by 40% and 25% respectively.
Various factors are behind the housing crisis, mainly the deterioration of the credit market, high property prices and the shrinking of public housing subsidies since 2022. In addition, the zero-interest loan (PTZ) for new single-family homes has been abolished in 2024 and the 'Pinel' incentive for new rental investments by private owners is due to end in 2025. All in all, the environment seems less favourable for households to take a long-term view and thus to invest.
In addition, the market for renovation and maintenance of dwellings will grow by 2.2% in constant prices in 2023. However, in 2024 it is expected to slow down by 1.1% in volume terms. The energy renovation market is expected to grow by only 1.3%. In fact, the reform of MaPrimeRénov public support and the decline in transactions of existing dwellings in 2023 will have a negative impact on renovation work in 2024.
Non-residential construction
In 2023, the production of non-residential buildings stabilised (+0.4% at constant prices). However, the surface area started to decline by 15% to 22.4 million square metres, the lowest level since 1986. All market segments were affected.
As a result, non-residential construction is expected to fall by 6% in volume terms by 2024. In addition, the area started will decrease in 2024 (-1.1%). In addition, the area authorised is expected to increase slightly (+1.6%), with differences between building types: administrative buildings, industrial and similar buildings and hotels are expected to have a good outlook, while retail and office space will continue to decline.
After an increase of 2.4% at constant prices in 2023, the renovation and maintenance market for non-residential buildings should continue its positive trend with growth of 2.3% in 2024. This market should benefit from the implementation of the mandatory energy audit in the tertiary sector and the launch of the EduRénovprogramme(renovation of public education buildings).
GDP 2023
BILLION
POPULATION 2023
Total investment in construction in 2023
BILLION
Civil engineering
2023 was a better year than expected for the French public works sector. Thanks to investment by major conurbations in public transport infrastructure (metros, trams, etc.) and a slowdown in the rise of construction production costs, its activity increased by around 4.2% (in nominal terms).
Looking ahead to 2024, the public works sector expects overall activity to remain stable, albeit with significant regional differences and variations depending on the type of client. While the municipal cycle is expected to have a positive impact on public works activity, the real estate crisis will have a negative impact on investment by private clients (promoters, companies, individuals, etc.) and government departments (whose resources are partly dependent on real estate transactions). In addition, the moratorium on public works for a significant period around the 2024 Olympic Games will further affect the Île-de-France region.
In terms of overseas activities, exports will amount to €51.3 billion in 2022, representing more than 50% of total civil engineering turnover.
Prices of construction materials
Prices for construction materials generally slowed or even fell in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, before stabilising in the second half of 2023. Nevertheless, they remain 30% to 40% higher than pre-crisis prices.
Per cent variation of investment in real terms of previous year
Number of building permits in residential construction
